One of the greatest parts of
analyzing sports is checking to see how close your predictions were at the end
of the season. There are surprises in
the NFL every year, and this year is no different. There is still lots to
happen, but let’s see how my predictions fared.
New England Patriots 13 wins 3 losses New England 12 wins 4 losses
New York Jets 8
wins 8 losses Miami 7 wins 9 losses
Buffallo Bills 5 wins 11 losses Jets 6 wins 10 losses
Miami Dolphins 3
wins 13 losses Buffalo 6 wins 10 losses
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens 12
wins 4 losses Baltimore 10 wins 6 losses
Pittsburgh Steelers 11 wins 5 losses Cincinnati 10 wins 6 losses
Cincinatti Bengals 6 wins 10 losses Pittsburgh 8 wins
8 losses
Cleveland Browns 3
wins 13 losses Cleveland 5 wins
11 losses
AFC South
Houston Texans 12
wins 4 losses Houston 12 wins 4 losses
Indianapolis Colts 7 wins 9 losses Indianapolis 10 wins 6 losses
Tennessee Titans 6
wins 10 losses Tennessee 6 wins
10 losses
Jacksonville Jaguars 4 wins 12 losses Jaguars 2 wins 14 losses
AFC West
Denver Broncos 10
wins 6 losses Denver 13 wins 3 losses
San Diego Chargers 9 wins 7 losses San
Diego 7 wins 9 losses
Kansas City Chiefs 9 wins 7 losses Oakland 4 wins
12 losses
Oakland Raiders 7
wins 9 losses Chiefs 2 wins 14 losses
NFC East
Philadelphia Eagles 12 wins 4 losses Redskins 10 wins 6 losses
New York Giants 11
wins 5 losses Giants 9 wins 7 losses
Dallas Cowboys 8
wins 8 losses Dallas 8 wins 8
losses
Washington Redskins 6 wins 10 losses Eagles 4 wins 12
losses
NFC North
Green Bay Packers 12 wins 4 losses Packers 11 wins 5 losses
Chicago Bears 12
wins 4 losses Vikings 10 wins 6 losses
Detroit Lions 10 wins 6 losses Bears 10 wins 6 losses
Minnesota Vikings 4 wins 12 losses Lions 4 wins 12 losses
NFC South
New Orleans Saints 12 wins 4 losses Falcons 13 wins 3 losses
Atlanta Falcons 10
wins 6 losses Panthers 7 wins 9 losses
Carolina Panthers 4 wins 12 losses Saints 7 wins 9 losses
Tampa Bay Bucaneers 4 wins 12 losses Tampa Bay 7 wins
9 losses
NFC West
San Francisco 49ers 10 wins 6 losses 49ers 11 wins 4 losses 1 tie
Seattle Seahawks 6
wins 10 losses Seattle 11 wins 5 losses
St Louis Rams 5
wins 11 losses Rams 7 wins 8 losses 1 tie
Arizona Cardinals
5 wins 11 losses Arizona 5 wins 11 losses
It was a rough year for my predictions. I
correctly predicted the seeding for all 4 teams in only 2 divisions: the AFC
South and NFC West.
I correctly predicted 6 of the 8 division
winners, with Atlanta and Washington being my incorrect division winner picks.
I correctly predicted the exact records of 4 of
the 32 teams: Houston, Tennessee, Dallas, and Arizona.
Let’s look at the playoff positioning.
My predictions Actual
AFC Playoff Picture
1. New England 1. Denver
2. Baltimore 2. New England
3. Houston 3.
Houston
4. Denver 4. Baltimore
5. Pittsburgh 5. Indianapolis
6. San Diego 6.
Cincinnati
I predicted 4 of the 6 playoff
teams in the AFC, with Houston being seeded right where I predicted them in the
number 3 spot.
NFC Playoff Picture
1. Green Bay 1. Atlanta
2. New Orleans 2. San Francisco
3. Philadelphia 3. Green Bay
4. San Francisco 4. Washington
5. Chicago 5. Seattle
6. Atlanta 6. Minnesota
I predicted 3 of the 6 playoff
teams in the NFC, with none predicted in their exact seeding.
I don’t think I can call this
year a success with my predictions. When the team you predicted to win the
Super Bowl finishes last in their division (Philadelphia), it’s a bad year. As
a fun fact, I predicted Michael Vick would lead the Eagles on a last minute
game winning drive to win the Super Bowl against the Baltimore Ravens. That
happened in week 2 when Vick did so against the Ravens. Things fell apart for
the Eagles after that.
It will still be interesting to
see how the NFL playoffs turnout. My predictions for this year don’t have much
validity anymore other than Baltimore perhaps losing in the Super Bowl with Ray
Lewis motivating them on his last ride. My preseason MVP pick of Tom Brady won’t
be correct either, as it appears to be a race between Peyton Manning and Adrian
Peterson (rightfully so).
You can see my preseason picks
here on my blog with this link if you want to see them outlined in detail with playoff score
predictions: http://winningallthings.blogspot.ca/2012/09/nfl-season-predictions.html
Perhaps I will have better luck
next year, but making these predictions is a joy.
Feel free to comment. Who do you
think will win the Super Bowl and MVP?